Win-Win Solution to achieve 100% RE by 2030

Win-Win Solution to achieve 100% RE by 2030  

( this note is just to explore the true facts on some of the claims by lobby groups pressing the new government to follow aggressive Renewable targets following wealthy nations in Europe)

The instant demand of a power system is totally controlled by the customer. As customers, you don’t give call to the utility and  inform that you are  going to switch-on fan , water pump, AC etc. in advance.. at the time you switch it ON , utility has  to supply that demand. We can’t say you 'wait till we get rain or fuel ship, coal ship to arrive or wait till we get proper wind &  sunshine' . So the system should  have a good share of ‘Firm Power’ to provide the ever changing   demand which is  in your hand. On top of this, Sri Lanka is having a tiny , isolated power system which is not similar to large inter-connected systems available  in wealthy European countries ( to borrow power instantly in case of shortage)

It is bit difficult for us to explain  the general  public the difference between ‘Firm Power’  ( ex. Large Hydro with reservoir, Nuclear & Thermal Plants which are controlled by human)  and ‘ Non- Firm Power' ( ex. Solar & wind which depend on nature). The Internet Power Experts ( who depend on direct/indirect solar business and virtually living in Europe) know the difference ,  but tells lies to the innocent public . They simply say …There is nothing called Firm or Non-Firm – all are same . Or tell that ‘Non-firm’  can be converted ‘Firm’   with very small investment,  Battery prices are coming down sharply bla..bla..

If someone want to implement aggressive RE plans,  making variable solar and wind as the majour share of the system ( beyond the stability limits of this tiny isolated system),   solar and wind should also be converted to ' firm power'.

In case of  Solar,  to convert it to a ‘Firm’ energy source , you need to have Battery Banks or Pump Storage Hydro Power plants ( a special  hydro power plant which operate with  two large reservoirs) . Pump storage is the best option but if you take  Upper Kothmale and even ongoing hydro projects as examples, it takes 12-15 years to realized the project  , mainly due to the protests from environmentalist / local politicians and NGOs. On the other hand most of the  existing hydro schemes  are multi-purpose ( drinking,  agriculture & power which gives priority to drinking water during dry season).  In case of Pump Storage  it will be exclusively for power generation and all capital investment should be absorbed by the unit of  electricity.

With this  “80-100%  RE by 2030 @  at any cost” target,  primary objective of this small  country seems to be saving the  entire world from Climate Change ? Proud to be a Sri Lankan !!!

However in that case   we can’t wait for another  15 years until these inefficient CEB engineers to construct large reservoirs. So Battery storage is the swiftest solution. Our Internet Power Experts continuously say all wealthy countries aggressively  going for Solar + Battery to save the world from climate change . If it is the world trend... why not we join.? We should also jump to the boat & lead the trend!!

But the innocent general  public should know  the real situation. The same vendors who says solar + battery is cheaper than other conventional firm power ( quoting thousands of web articles)  demanded for  exorbitantly high   prices when CEB call tenders.

In  2019, CEB called Expression of Interest to supply Solar/Wind +  Battery system. Here are the prices offered by these environment friendly , low cost  vendors backed by  Internet Power Experts.

Tender -1 : Battery Capacity-2.5MW (5MWh to be discharged in the night peak from 18.30hrs – 20.30hrs as per CEB request)

Proposal No	Tariff
1	Rs. 78.80
2	Rs. 75.00
3	Rs. 47.98

Tender -2  Hybrid Power System - Wind, Solar, Battery  capacity-5MW, 10MWh to be discharged in the night peak from 18.30hrs – 20.30hrs

Proposal No	Tariff
1	Rs. 88.87
2	Rs. 98.48
3	Rs. 54.98

Please note that the in case of solar , above prices are for charging the battery during entire daytime and release that total energy within a 2 hr period during night.
Solar vendors often blame CEB for paying Emergency Diesel Rs.28-29 per unit in short term. Em. Diesel is very bad though  it is Firm Energy and can't be compared with Variable version of Solar price. I personally believe   if  Solar +  Batt can come at least for Rs. 30/- per unit  for 1st 5 years and less than Rs. 20/- later, its worth considering them for 20 year contract. (Note: these are only thumb-rule figures without any cost analysis pl. ) 

CEB is supplying to Industrial Customers an electricity unit in the range Rs. 11-15/= .  ( CEB average cost of production of an electricity unit  over Rs. 22 now and Av . selling price is just above Rs.16). Even at this price, Sri Lankan products have become noncompetitive in the international markets due to advantages available (including low cost of electricity) for investors   in other countries like India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. Under this situation is PUCSL going to increase the tariff  just to pay exorbitant prices for solar vendors. ( Note: PUCSL has never declared cost- reflective tariff although that is one of their primary responsibility and all these losses  are pumped from tax payers money by the government) .  The government must look-after all the industries, not only RE industry just because they are making a big noise for their own personal advantages? Isn't it? 

However there is a win-win solution as well . PUCSL can declare a special  tariff  for aggressive RE lovers. For example the  rich  segment of the people in the country ( including these Internet Power Experts) whose primary objective is not to eradicate  poverty but to follow the world trends can pay a higher price. The utility must ensure that electricity  supply to them shall be only using variable renewable sources like Solar & Wind. Utility will be just a vehicle to transport   energy from Solar/Wind Plants  to wealthy customers.  The Unit Cost  should be  'firm version' of these VRE ( as indicated in above tables) .  PUC can revise the tariff  based on the actual costs in every 6 months.  As these experts  are very sure that by 2030 these costs become 20-30% of the existing due to rapidly decreasing Solar, Wind & Battery prices,  they will be the real winners by 2030. The poor customers like you & me , industries will also be able to switch to VRE ( firm version) and afford the  prices if it become really low. We all will be winners   by that time !!! 

NB:
Do you still believe there is no difference between firm vs variable power  pl watch this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObvdSmPbdLg&feature=share

Finally if you are still not sure that overall  electricity price of a country goes up with aggressive addition of variable RE  ? Then read these please

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/25/yes-solar-and-wind-really-do-increase-electricity-prices-and-for-inherently-physical-reasons/#3457ad3917e8

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/25/yes-solar-and-wind-really-do-increase-electricity-prices-and-for-inherently-physical-reasons/#3457ad3917e8