Win-Win Solution to achieve 100% RE by 2030
The instant demand of a power system is totally controlled by the customer. As customers, you don’t give call to the utility and inform that you are going to switch-on fan , water pump, AC etc. in advance.. at the time you switch it ON , utility has to supply that demand. We can’t say you 'wait till we get rain or fuel ship, coal ship to arrive or wait till we get proper wind & sunshine' . So the system should have a good share of ‘Firm Power’ to provide the ever changing demand which is in your hand. On top of this, Sri Lanka is having a tiny , isolated power system which is not similar to large inter-connected systems available in wealthy European countries ( to borrow power instantly in case of shortage)
It is bit difficult for us to explain the general public the difference between ‘Firm Power’ ( ex. Large Hydro with reservoir, Nuclear
& Thermal Plants which are controlled by human) and ‘ Non- Firm Power' ( ex. Solar & wind
which depend on nature). The Internet Power Experts ( who depend on
direct/indirect solar business and virtually living in Europe) know the difference , but tells lies to the innocent public . They
simply say …There is nothing called Firm or Non-Firm – all are same . Or tell
that ‘Non-firm’ can be converted ‘Firm’ with
very small investment, Battery prices
are coming down sharply bla..bla..
If someone want to implement aggressive RE plans, making variable solar and wind as the majour share of the system ( beyond the stability limits of this tiny isolated system), solar and wind should also be converted to ' firm power'.
In case of Solar, to convert it to a ‘Firm’ energy source , you
need to have Battery Banks or Pump Storage Hydro Power plants ( a special hydro power plant which operate with two large reservoirs)
. Pump storage is the best option but if you take Upper Kothmale and even
ongoing hydro projects as examples, it takes 12-15 years to realized the
project , mainly due to the protests
from environmentalist / local politicians and NGOs. On the other hand most of
the existing hydro schemes are multi-purpose ( drinking, agriculture & power which gives priority to drinking water during dry
season). In case of Pump Storage it will be exclusively for power generation and
all capital investment should be absorbed by the unit of electricity.
With this “80-100% RE by 2030 @ at any cost” target, primary objective of this small country seems to be
saving the entire world from Climate
Change ? Proud to be a Sri Lankan !!!
However in that case we can’t wait for another 15 years until these inefficient
CEB engineers to construct large reservoirs. So Battery storage is the swiftest
solution. Our Internet Power Experts continuously say all wealthy countries aggressively going for Solar + Battery to save the world from climate change . If it is the world trend... why not we join.? We should also jump to the boat & lead the trend!!
But the innocent general public should know the real situation. The same vendors who says
solar + battery is cheaper than other conventional firm power ( quoting
thousands of web articles) demanded for exorbitantly
high prices when CEB call tenders.
In 2019, CEB called Expression of Interest to supply Solar/Wind
+ Battery system. Here are the prices
offered by these environment friendly , low cost vendors backed by Internet Power Experts.
Tender -1 : Battery Capacity-2.5MW (5MWh to be
discharged in the night peak from 18.30hrs – 20.30hrs as per CEB request)
Proposal No
|
Tariff
|
1
|
Rs. 78.80
|
2
|
Rs. 75.00
|
3
|
Rs. 47.98
|
Tender -2 Hybrid Power System - Wind, Solar, Battery capacity-5MW, 10MWh to be discharged in
the night peak from 18.30hrs – 20.30hrs
Proposal No
|
Tariff
|
1
|
Rs. 88.87
|
2
|
Rs. 98.48
|
3
|
Rs. 54.98
|
Please note that the in case of solar , above prices are for charging the battery during entire daytime and release that total energy within a 2 hr period during night.
Solar vendors often blame CEB for paying Emergency Diesel Rs.28-29 per unit in short term. Em. Diesel is very bad though it is Firm Energy and can't be compared with Variable version of Solar price. I personally believe if Solar + Batt can come at least for Rs. 30/- per unit for 1st 5 years and less than Rs. 20/- later, its worth considering them for 20 year contract. (Note: these are only thumb-rule figures without any cost analysis pl. )
CEB is supplying to Industrial Customers an electricity unit in the range Rs. 11-15/= . ( CEB average cost of production of an electricity unit over Rs. 22 now and Av . selling price is just above Rs.16). Even at this price, Sri Lankan products have become noncompetitive in the international markets due to advantages available (including low cost of electricity) for investors in other countries like India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. Under this situation is PUCSL going to increase the tariff just to pay exorbitant prices for solar vendors. ( Note: PUCSL has never declared cost- reflective tariff although that is one of their primary responsibility and all these losses are pumped from tax payers money by the government) . The government must look-after all the industries, not only RE industry just because they are making a big noise for their own personal advantages? Isn't it?
Solar vendors often blame CEB for paying Emergency Diesel Rs.28-29 per unit in short term. Em. Diesel is very bad though it is Firm Energy and can't be compared with Variable version of Solar price. I personally believe if Solar + Batt can come at least for Rs. 30/- per unit for 1st 5 years and less than Rs. 20/- later, its worth considering them for 20 year contract. (Note: these are only thumb-rule figures without any cost analysis pl. )
CEB is supplying to Industrial Customers an electricity unit in the range Rs. 11-15/= . ( CEB average cost of production of an electricity unit over Rs. 22 now and Av . selling price is just above Rs.16). Even at this price, Sri Lankan products have become noncompetitive in the international markets due to advantages available (including low cost of electricity) for investors in other countries like India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. Under this situation is PUCSL going to increase the tariff just to pay exorbitant prices for solar vendors. ( Note: PUCSL has never declared cost- reflective tariff although that is one of their primary responsibility and all these losses are pumped from tax payers money by the government) . The government must look-after all the industries, not only RE industry just because they are making a big noise for their own personal advantages? Isn't it?
However there is a win-win solution as well . PUCSL can declare a
special tariff for aggressive RE lovers. For example the rich segment
of the people in the country ( including these Internet Power Experts) whose primary objective is not to eradicate poverty but to follow the world trends can pay a higher price. The utility must
ensure that electricity supply to them
shall be only using variable renewable sources like Solar & Wind. Utility will be just a vehicle to transport energy from Solar/Wind Plants to wealthy customers. The Unit
Cost should be 'firm version' of these VRE ( as indicated in
above tables) . PUC can revise the tariff
based on the actual costs in every 6
months. As these experts are very sure that by
2030 these costs become 20-30% of the existing due to rapidly decreasing Solar,
Wind & Battery prices, they will be
the real winners by 2030. The poor customers like you & me , industries
will also be able to switch to VRE ( firm version) and afford the prices if it become really low. We all will be winners by that time !!!
NB:
Do you still believe there is no difference between firm vs variable power pl watch this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObvdSmPbdLg&feature=share
Finally if you are still not sure that overall electricity price of a country goes up with aggressive addition of variable RE ? Then read these please
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/25/yes-solar-and-wind-really-do-increase-electricity-prices-and-for-inherently-physical-reasons/#3457ad3917e8
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/25/yes-solar-and-wind-really-do-increase-electricity-prices-and-for-inherently-physical-reasons/#3457ad3917e8
